Why Nasa will break up in not so long
I don’t see the National Super Alliance holding together because the 2022 polls will be a transitional election.
NASA has been unable to manage its wrangles. ODM has been behaving as if they are not in a coalition and wants to take up literally everything that comes up in Parliament.
ODM is not showing the coalition spirit and the people who are grumbling most are from Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress.
The ANC holds a substantial block in NASA in terms of numbers. If they pull out, that will have a major impact on the coalition and it will cease being NASA. In fact, NASA has already been transformed into the National Resistance Movement.
At one point, NASA leader Raila Odinga came out and said that he will not support Kalonzo Musyoka because he did not get the Presidency this year. Do you think Kalonzo will agree to play second fiddle while Musalia and Wetang’ula sit there waiting? It can’t work.
Politicians also want to look for relevance wherever they will be. Co-principals Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and Kalonzo are not getting any younger.
If Raila keeps on running, I see those guys possibly abandoning him. The next move that Raila makes, whether he is going to run or not, will have a bearing on how the Opposition sets up. Chances of NASA holding are very slim.
There will be lots of realignments, whether there are wrangles or not. But its a pointer that transition politics will start taking shape immediately after President Uhuru Kenyatta forms the Cabinet to help him serve the nation in his second and final term.
The disgruntled NASA co-principals want to show a symbol of unity, but they have instead let their foot soldiers air grievances on their behalf.
There is bound to be fresh realignments on both sides of political divide – NASA and Jubilee. In every General Election, our politics have changed such that we have new outfits being re-engineered.
There were wrangles in Jubilee during the Council of Governors’ meeting at the Coast. There are a lot of undercurrents both on the NASA and Jubilee side. These aspects will play a major role in the way politics is going to shape up.
The realignments have kept on changing since 2002. The wrangles in Opposition are just one of the factors that are calling for fresh realignments.
The writer is a political analyst